bet-sizinglisted

Size product bets by separating reversible from irreversible decisions and shaping work to fit an appetite. Most product bets are Type 2 decisions — reversible, low-cost to try, high-cost to deliberate. Move fast on those. Save deliberation for Type 1 decisions that are hard to undo. ## Type 1 vs Type 2 Decisions (Bezos) **Type 1 (Irreversible):** One-way doors. Hard to undo once committed. - Choosing a core technology/platform - Pricing model changes that affect existing customers - Killing a product line - Public commitments (partnerships, integrations) **Type 2 (Reversible):** Two-way doors. Easy to undo or iterate. - Most new features (can ship, measure, remove) - UI/UX changes (can A/B test or revert) - Internal tooling decisions - Most API additions (harder to remove, but additive is safer) **Rule:** Use lightweight process for Type 2. Use deliberate process for Type 1. Most product teams over-process Type 2 decisions and under-process Type 1 decisions. ## Shape Up Pitch Format When proposing a bet, structure it as a Shape Up pitch: ### 1. Problem A specific story showing real pain. Not an abstract need — a concrete situation with a real user. > "When a PM finishes a customer interview, they spend 45 minutes transcribing notes into a PRD. By the time they're done, the emotional context is gone and the PRD reads like a requirements list." ### 2. Appetite How much time is this worth? Not how long it will take — how much you're willing to invest. - Small bet: 1-2