seo-potential-analysislisted

# SEO Potential Analysis Turn a Status-Quo into a **defensible business case**: how many extra clicks, leads, and euros an SEO engagement realistically produces over 12 months. ## Preconditions A Status-Quo table must exist for the domain (run `seo-status-quo` / `/visibly-seo-status-quo` first). You need, per keyword: search volume (SV), current position, current clicks, impressions, and an intent label. ## Step 1 — Classify intent (this drives everything) Each keyword is **transactional, commercial, informational, or navigational**. CTR at the same position differs wildly by intent, so misclassifying inflates or deflates the whole forecast. When unsure, infer from the SERP and the query form ("buy", "price", "vs", "how to", brand name). ## Step 2 — Apply the intent-aware CTR curve Read CTR from the **Keyword Study 2026** curve in [`docs/ctr-model.md`](../../docs/ctr-model.md) (first-party GSC data, 1.3M keywords, 94 domains). Pick the column for the keyword's intent, the row for its position. Anchor values at position 1: | Intent | CTR @ Pos 1 | |---|---| | Navigational | ~8.9 % | | Commercial | ~4.1 % | | Transactional | ~3.7 % | | Informational | ~3.2 % | | Overall (blended) | ~5.6 % | **Never** use the old textbook curve (Pos 1 = 28 %). Below position 20: ~0.3 % (21-50), ~0.1 % (50+). ## Step 3 — Set realistic 12-month target positions | Current position | Search volume | Target | |---|---|---| | > 100 | > 10k | Pos 15 | | > 100 | 5-10k | Pos 12 | | > 100 | 1-5