renewal-forecastlisted

# Renewal Forecast A forecast is not a sum of opinions. It is a commitment with a confidence attached, and the two most common ways it goes wrong are structural rather than analytical: **contraction is not counted, and correlated risks are added up as though they were independent.** The failure this exists to prevent: **the logo forecast.** Ninety-four per cent of accounts renewing, reported as a healthy quarter, while the dollars come in eleven per cent light because a third of them renewed smaller. --- ## What this needs **Shared context.** If an `account-context` document exists, read it first: contract shapes, pricing model and segments. On consumption or hybrid pricing the whole shape of this changes. Where it is absent, carry on and name the assumption. **Minimum: the accounts up for renewal, their values and their dates.** Enough for a dollar forecast with honest confidence bands. **Better with** a current risk read per account, the auto-renewal and notice terms, and last quarter's forecast against what actually landed. **Best with** two or more quarters of forecast-versus-actual by forecaster, which is what turns this from arithmetic into calibration. --- ## Step 1: Forecast dollars, and size contraction separately Three numbers, not one: - **Gross renewal dollars**, the value at risk that renews at all - **Contraction**, the dollars lost from accounts that renew smaller - **Expansion**, kept apart from renewal so a good expansion quarter cannot conceal a