pre-mortemlisted

# Pre-Mortem & Scenario Planning ## When to Apply - Before finalizing any Strategy Kernel - When planning a major initiative or Goal - When buffer enters YELLOW zone (validate contingencies) - When the founder is overly optimistic about a single plan - Quarterly strategy reviews ## Core Framework ### Pre-Mortem (5-Step Process) 1. **Assume total failure:** "It is 6 months from now. This strategy has completely failed. Why?" 2. **Enumerate causes:** List 3-5 specific, concrete failure scenarios (not vague risks) 3. **For each cause, define:** - Prevention measure (what to do now) - Plan B (what to do if it happens) - Early warning KPI (what to watch) - Trigger threshold (when to act) 4. **Rank by likelihood x impact** 5. **Embed triggers into the monitoring system** so Plan B activates automatically ``` Failure cause: "LinkedIn organic saturated — ICP exhausted in target segment" Prevention: Track unique ICP accounts remaining; alert at <500 Plan B: Pivot to content-first -> community -> warm intro strategy Early warning KPI: new connection acceptance rate declining Trigger: acceptance rate < 15% for 2 consecutive weeks ``` ### Scenario Planning (4 Scenarios with Auto-Triggers) Define quantitative trigger points for each scenario. When thresholds are hit, Plan B activates AUTOMATICALLY — removing human judgment to prevent bias (loss aversion, sunk cost). | Scenario | Condition | Response | |---|---|---| | OPTIMISTIC | Exceeds target by 20%+ | Contin