forecasting-ch10-superforecastinglisted
Install: claude install-skill KarpelesPublishing/the-art-and-science-of-forecasting
# Chapter 10: The Superforecaster
## Scope and intake
Use when a resolvable event needs an explicit probability, evidence-based updates and a forecast journal. Do not use for an undefined success criterion, a quantity-only launch scenario with no uncertainty model, or a request to prove causation from a probability.
Ask only for unresolved material inputs: Exactly what counts as yes, by what deadline and timezone? Which resolution source and ambiguity rule apply? What comparable-event base rate exists? Which evidence items share a source? At what lead time will forecasts be scored?
## Input contract and additional evidence
Two linked tables or a JSON journal: events require event_id, question, cutoff, deadline, resolution_source, resolution_rule, baseline; outcome is 0/1 or null with resolved_at. Revisions require event_id,timestamp,probability,reason,evidence_source,counterargument,update_trigger. Timestamps include timezone; probabilities lie in [0,1]. Retain every revision.
Minimal **journal-format illustration**, unresolved and therefore not yet scoreable:
```json
{
"events": [
{
"event_id": "launch-1",
"question": "Will 24-month units exceed 50000?",
"cutoff": "2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00",
"deadline": "2028-09-18T12:00:00+00:00",
"resolution_source": "Audited sales register",
"resolution_rule": "Strictly greater than 50000 net units",
"baseline": 0.2,
"outcome": null,
"resolved_at": null
}
],
"revi