forecasting-ch27-directed-forecastinglisted

# Chapter 27: Giving the Oracle Direction ## Scope and intake Use when a business question needs routing from available evidence to a defensible forecast, especially proxy-based launch volumes and trial/repeat timing. Do not use for an automatic request to run every forecasting method, or a causal spend recommendation without an identification design. Ask only for unresolved material inputs: What decision changes with the answer? What target, population, unit, horizon and cutoff apply? Is usable history present? Are analogues comparable and current? Does stated volume mean unique trials or total units? Which genuinely distinct cross-check and eventual scoring outcome are available? ## Input contract and additional evidence Three routes share one command: `mode: history` runs the chapter 12 engine on an established product's `timestamp,target` series (2 seasons + 4 horizons of history, else provisional; fewer than 36 points returns needs_evidence); `mode: estimate` returns the evidence request; `mode: launch` (default) needs the reference-product table below. A launch with no reference products belongs to [reconcile-tdbu](../reconcile-tdbu/SKILL.md). Intake record: target,units,population,horizon_months,as_of,decision,history_available,source,outcome_due. Mature-product table: product,eligible_buyers,awareness,availability_given_awareness,interest,units_per_buyer_24m,observed_units_24m,research_date,source,split. Probabilities are conditional fractions in [0,1]; quantitie