radar-ledger-updatelisted

# Update the ledger safely `TRENDS.md` is the single source of truth and later sessions parse it. The structure is a contract. ## File contract (do not change) - Header: `# Trend ledger — AI Radar`, then `Last updated: YYYY-MM-DD`, then the stage legend. - Sections, in this order: `## Active trends`, `## observation_queue`, `## source_rotation`, `## strategy_notes`, `## study_shelf`, `## calibration`. - Trend block: `### [id: slug-NNN] Title` with fields `alias`, optional `pinned: true`, `stage`, `confidence`, `first_observed`, `last_evidence`, `evidence:` (list), `notes:`. - Evidence line: `- YYYY-MM-DD — URL — one line of context`. ## Rules - Match findings to existing trends via id and `alias` before creating a new trend. New trends take the next free NNN and start at `seed` or `emerging`. - Max 10 evidence items per trend — drop the oldest. Keep `last_evidence` equal to the newest evidence date. - Stage moves: at most ONE stage up per trend per day, only on new independent evidence, justified in `notes`. Demotions are always allowed. 21+ days without evidence → `dormant`; at 45+ days the weekly pass moves the entry to `ARCHIVE.md` as a one-line post-mortem. - Pinned trends (`pinned: true`): NEVER auto-archived, no matter how long without evidence — they are the curator's standing-watch axes. They still follow the normal stage rules, INCLUDING going `dormant` when quiet (the ledger stays truthful about activity); they simply never leave the boa