bet-framelisted

# Frame the bet Every consequential decision is a bet: you commit resources under uncertainty and the outcome is only partly in your control. Framing well is most of the work. A badly framed decision cannot be rescued by careful analysis further down the line. ## First, size the response Match effort to what is actually at stake. Judge from the request itself: - **Trivial** — cheap to undo, small blast radius, no meaningful unknowns. Answer in a sentence or two, name the one assumption worth knowing, stop. Do not produce a decision record, do not propose a bet file, do not run anti-bias moves. Ceremony here is a cost with no return. - **Moderate** — real rework to undo, or genuine unknowns. Separate facts from assumptions, name the unknowns, offer a bet file without insisting. - **Consequential** — expensive, slow, or impossible to undo; wide blast radius; or a decision others will build on. Run the full frame below and write the bet file. When it is genuinely unclear, ask one question rather than guessing. ## Is this the right question? Before analysing the decision as posed, check whether it is the decision. People routinely arrive with a solution already chosen and ask you to evaluate it. "Should we use Kafka?" is a solution wearing a question's clothes. The decision underneath is usually something like "what is the best way to handle our expected event volume without adding operational load we cannot carry?" Reframe when the question names a specific