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# Commit, then revise Two moments, one skill, because they share a file and a discipline: say what you believe, say what would change it, and then actually change it when that arrives. Read which moment you are in. If there is no commitment yet, you are committing. If a decision exists and new evidence has turned up, you are revising. If the outcome is known and finished, this is the wrong skill — `bet-review` handles that, because judging a decision after the fact needs an active guard against hindsight that this skill does not carry. ## First, size the response - **Trivial** — state the call and the one thing that would change it. Done. - **Moderate** — the decision record below, minus the sections that would be empty. - **Consequential** — full record, written to the bet file. ## Committing Deciding under uncertainty is the normal case, not a failure. The job is to commit honestly rather than to manufacture the confidence that would make committing comfortable. The record: - **Decision** — what is being chosen, in one line. - **Objective** — the outcome being optimised for. If this is fuzzy, the decision cannot be evaluated later. - **Key facts** — what is actually established, with the evidence. - **Key assumptions** — what is being taken on trust. The load-bearing ones. - **Confidence** — and what it rests on. No bare percentages. - **Open unknowns** — what remains unresolved and why it was acceptable to proceed anyway. - **Stakes and reversibility** — carr