kalshi-weather-marketslisted

# Kalshi Weather Markets — Daily Temperature High/Low Kalshi lists daily high and low temperature options for ~20 US cities as binary contracts that settle YES ($1.00) or NO ($0.00). This skill covers the market structure, the forecast-to-probability map, exact settlement mechanics, and hard-won pitfalls. It builds on the exchange layer — for Kalshi API mechanics (host, auth, orders, order book, candlesticks) see the `kalshi-api` skill; for strategy, sizing, and backtesting see `prediction-market-strategy`. ## Contract Types ### Brackets — `B<center>` A bracket ticker `B<center>` is a **2°F-wide, both-ends-inclusive** window. - `B74.5` covers the **two integers {74, 75}°F**. - YES iff the settled temperature is exactly 74 **or** 75. - Brackets in one event are mutually exclusive and (with two open tail markets) collectively exhaustive. - Their YES prices sum to the **overround** (fair = 1.0; > 1.0 = aggregate overpricing). ### Thresholds — `T<strike>` A threshold ticker `T<strike>` is a one-sided binary. - `greater` → YES iff `cli >= strike + 1` - `less` → YES iff `cli <= strike - 1` - **Critical:** `strike_type` (`"greater"` / `"less"`) is **not inferable from the ticker**. Read it from the API `strike_type` field every time. ### Ticker Format ``` KXHIGH<CITY>-<YYMONDD>-B<center> # bracket high KXLOW<CITY>-<YYMONDD>-T<strike> # threshold low ``` **The date is encoded in the ticker, not derivable from `close_time`.** `KXHIGHNY-26JUN21` settles 2026-06-21