cot-contrarian-detectorlisted

# COT Contrarian Detector ## Overview Implements step 1 of Jason Shapiro's COT (Commitment of Traders) contrarian process: detect when large speculators are crowded into one side of a futures market. Crowded positioning is a *precondition* for a contrarian trade, not a trade signal — a market only becomes tradable once crowding is confirmed by a news failure and price-action reversal (steps 2-3), which this skill guides the user through manually. **Core thesis (Shapiro):** Large speculators (hedge funds, CTAs, momentum traders) tend to be maximally positioned at trend exhaustion, not trend inception. When they are already crowded onto one side, the next big move is statistically more likely to run them over than to reward them further. Fade the *speculators*, not the commercials (commercials hedge for structural reasons and are not a crowd-psychology signal). ## When to Use This Skill **English:** - "What markets are the speculators crowded into right now?" - "Run a COT report analysis" / "Show me COT positioning extremes" - "Is anyone 'trapped' in gold / the dollar / bonds right now?" - User wants to find contrarian futures setups - User asks for a Jason Shapiro-style COT screen **Japanese:** - 「COTレポートで買われすぎ・売られすぎのポジションを調べて」 - 「投機筋が偏っている市場は？」 - 「ジェイソン・シャピロ式の逆張り分析をして」 **Do NOT use when:** - The user wants a trade signal right now — crowding alone is not actionable; see Guardrails below - The user is asking about individual equities — COT reports cover CFTC futures