swmm-uncertaintylisted
Install: claude install-skill Zhonghao1995/agentic-swmm-workflow
# SWMM Uncertainty
Part of [Agentic SWMM](https://github.com/Zhonghao1995/agentic-swmm-workflow) — install the project first for the executable toolchain (aiswmm CLI, SWMM solver, MCP servers).
## Agent path without observed data
The honest split (live findings F-107 and F-109, 2026-09-03): WITH observed
flow, `swmm_sensitivity_oat` / `swmm_sensitivity_morris` / `swmm_sensitivity_sobol`
rank parameters against the data (they need an observed series and a patch
map). WITHOUT observed flow, `propagate_parameter_ranges` is the tool for both
questions: `mode=one_at_a_time` varies each parameter alone in one call and
returns a per-parameter spread and a ranking ("which parameters matter most");
the default `joint` mode samples all ranges together and reports the spread
("how uncertain is the peak"). Never emulate a ranking with one sweep per
parameter. Rainfall: a request to scale the observed event by factors (0.8,
1.0, 1.2) on a model with inline rain is `run_climate_scenarios` with those
factors (live finding F-112, 2026-09-03); `swmm_rainfall_ensemble` needs a
prepared rainfall series file and a JSON config (perturbation or IDF).
`propagate_parameter_ranges` is the typed tool for "how uncertain is the peak if
Manning's n and imperviousness vary". It applies each named parameter globally
(the same value on every subcatchment or conduit), runs SWMM once per sample
through the audited runner, and writes `09_audit/parameter_sweep.json` and
`.md` with the baseline peak, the min