reasoning-counterfactuallisted

# Counterfactual Reasoning Simulate alternative realities. The logic of "what if" and decision evaluation. ## Type Signature ``` Counterfactual : Actual → Intervention → Alternative → Comparison Where: Actual : Decision × Outcome → ActualWorld Intervention : ActualWorld × Δ → ModifiedPremise Alternative : ModifiedPremise → ProjectedOutcome Comparison : (ActualWorld, ProjectedOutcome) → DifferenceAnalysis ``` ## When to Use **Use counterfactual when:** - Evaluating past decisions ("Should we have...") - Scenario planning ("What if X happens...") - Comparing options not taken ("If we had chosen...") - Strategic simulation ("If competitor does X...") - Learning from outcomes ("Was our decision right?") **Don't use when:** - Executing known process → Use Causal - Explaining observation → Use Abductive - Resolving disagreement → Use Dialectical ## Core Principles ### Minimal Intervention Change only what's necessary to test the hypothesis: - Modify one variable at a time where possible - Keep everything else constant (ceteris paribus) - Trace downstream effects carefully ### Probability Weighting Alternative outcomes aren't certain: - Assign probability to each projected outcome - Consider multiple possible alternatives per intervention - Avoid overconfidence in projections ### Asymmetry Awareness Counterfactual analysis has inherent biases: - Hindsight makes alternatives seem clearer - Survivors don't see paths that led to failure - Confidence in pr