scenario-analyzer

# Scenario Analyzer (India Markets) ## Overview This skill takes a news headline or event and builds probabilistic 18-month scenarios with cascading 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order sector impacts and specific stock recommendations for the Indian market. ## Architecture ``` Skill (Orchestrator) ├── Phase 1: Preparation │ ├── Headline parsing (keywords, entities, actions, numbers) │ ├── Event classification │ └── Load references ├── Phase 2: Analysis │ ├── Collect related news (past 2 weeks via WebSearch) │ ├── Build 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear, probabilities sum to 100%) │ ├── Map 1°/2°/3° sector impacts │ └── Identify 3-5 positive + 3-5 negative impact stocks └── Phase 3: Report Generation ├── Compile findings ├── Assess scenario probability distribution └── Save report ``` ## Event Classification Classify the headline into one of these categories: | Category | Indian Context Examples | |----------|----------------------| | **Monetary Policy** | RBI rate decision, CRR/SLR change, liquidity measures | | **Fiscal Policy** | Union Budget, GST changes, PLI schemes, disinvestment | | **Geopolitical** | India-China border, India-Pakistan, Russia-Ukraine, Middle East | | **Commodity** | Crude oil shock, gold prices, metal tariffs, food inflation | | **Regulatory** | SEBI rules, RBI NPA norms, telecom spectrum, pharma FDA | | **Corporate** | Major M&A, earnings surprise, promoter pledging, fraud | | **Global Macro** | Fed rate decision, US recession, China sl...