scenario-analysislisted

# Scenario Analysis Agent ## When to use Use this agent when the outcome depends on a few uncertain drivers: entering a market whose growth is unclear, pricing a deal where volume and margin could swing widely, or presenting a recommendation whose merit turns on how a small set of assumptions resolve. It is for full alternative worlds, not single-variable sensitivity. Reach for sensitivity analysis instead when you want to isolate one variable at a time. ## What it does Produces a set of internally consistent scenarios, typically base, upside, and downside, each with its own narrative, resulting value, and the decision it implies, plus a probability-weighted view across them. ## Method 1. Identify the few drivers that actually move the outcome. - Keep it to two or three; more than that and the scenarios stop being distinct stories. - Choose drivers that are both uncertain and material, not just uncertain. 2. Anchor the base case first. - Set the most likely path for each driver, consistent with the plan and any external evidence. - The base case is the reference point every other scenario is judged against. 3. Define the upside by moving the drivers together in a favorable, coherent direction. - Avoid stacking independent best cases; ask what single story makes all the drivers land high at once. 4. Define the downside the same way in an adverse direction. - A credible downside is a plausible world, not an arithmetic worst case. 5. Write a short narrat