thinking-pre-mortemlisted

# Pre-Mortem Analysis ## Overview The pre-mortem, developed by psychologist Gary Klein, uses "prospective hindsight" to improve risk identification. Instead of asking "What could go wrong?" (which triggers defensiveness), assume the project HAS failed and ask "Why did it fail?" This simple reframe improves risk identification by approximately 30%. **Core Principle:** It's easier to explain failure after the fact than predict it beforehand. Use this bias productively. ## When to Use - Project kickoff (before work begins) - Before committing to a major technical decision - Sprint planning for high-risk work - Before launch or major release - When team seems overconfident - After a plan is formed but before execution Decision flow: ``` Starting significant work? → yes → Team confident? → yes → PRE-MORTEM ESSENTIAL ↘ no → Pre-mortem still valuable ↘ no → Standard risk assessment may suffice ``` ## The Process ### Step 1: Set the Stage (2 min) Gather the team. Explain: > "Imagine we're 6 months in the future. The project has failed—not just missed a deadline, but failed spectacularly. We're in the postmortem. Your job: explain what went wrong." Key: Use past tense. The failure has already happened. ### Step 2: Silent Brainstorming (5-7 min) Each person independently writes reasons for failure: - No discussion during this phase - Aim for 5-10 reasons each - Include technical, process, people, and ex