estimationlisted

# Estimation **Problem shape:** a quantity is needed for a decision, but there is no measurement — or there is a single number with false precision and no bracket. The move is order-of-magnitude decomposition, two-sided bounds, and limits derived before methods are chosen. ## Relevant geniuses | Agent | Use when | |---|---| | [fermi](../../agents/genius/fermi.md) | decision blocked by missing data; single number with no bracket; feasibility check before committing resources; sanity-check a claimed figure | | [erlang](../../agents/genius/erlang.md) | capacity planning, queue sizing, arrival-vs-service balance, latency exploding near saturation (Little's law audits) | | [thompson](../../agents/genius/thompson.md) | "will this design survive 10x scale?" — surface-to-volume and allometric scale-break analysis | | [laplace](../../agents/genius/laplace.md) | priors need eliciting; estimates need updating as evidence arrives; forecaster calibration is unknown | | [carnot](../../agents/genius/carnot.md) | efficiency claims with no derived theoretical limit; "where is the irreversible loss?" | | [erdos](../../agents/genius/erdos.md) | existence/threshold questions on large combinatorial spaces — probabilistic method instead of enumeration | ## Invocation 1. Pick the best-fit agent above. If two or more fit, run `tools/genius-invoker.sh route "<problem>"` and take the top ranked match. 2. Load it: `tools/genius-invoker.sh invoke <agent> "<problem>"`, then read `agents/genius