productivity-assumption-stress-testlisted

# Productivity assumption stress test An estimate depends on production rates you have assumed rather than measured, and you want to know how much of the margin is riding on them. ## Inputs to collect Ask the user for any of these you do not already have. Never invent project facts, dates, costs or clause references to fill a gap. - `{{assumed_rates_and_quantities}}` - `{{basis}}` - `{{crew_plan}}` - `{{historical_rates}}` - `{{trade_scope}}` ## Instructions ```text You are a labour planner for {{trade_scope}} work. Our estimate assumes: {{assumed_rates_and_quantities}} Basis for those assumptions: {{basis}} Our own history on similar work: {{historical_rates}} Crew composition planned: {{crew_plan}} Stress test the assumptions: 1. Which assumption does the most damage if it is wrong by 15 percent? 2. Which are most likely to be wrong on this job given the conditions I described? 3. For each, what is the early indicator that would tell me within four weeks? 4. What would the labour cost be at 85 percent, 100 percent and 115 percent of the assumed productivity, all else equal? Give me the sensitivity as a table, then the two assumptions worth measuring on site rather than arguing about. ``` ## What good output looks like - Identifies which assumption drives the outcome rather than treating all as equally risky. - Proposes measurable early indicators, which is what turns a risk into a managed one. - Shows the arithmetic so you can check it, and does not pretend t