forecasting-brier-scoringlisted
Install: claude install-skill copyleftdev/superforecasting-skills-pack
# Scoring Probability Forecasts with the Brier Rule
Apply the technique with explicit assumptions and evidence limits. Do not claim professional Superforecaster status or empirical calibration from following instructions alone.
## Workflow
1. Verify frozen probabilities, resolution evidence, question versions and the forecast cutoff.
2. Select a scoring convention before comparing results: binary one-component [0,1] or categorical sum [0,2].
3. Validate probabilities and outcomes. Keep unresolved and void records out of numerical scoring and report exclusions.
4. Use one comparable snapshot per question, or apply a declared time-weighted schedule that does not reward update spam.
5. Compute per-question scores, the aggregate score and a benchmark evaluated on the same items and dates.
6. Report sample size, coverage, normalization, benchmark and limitations; route calibration diagnosis to a separate analysis.
## Detailed resources
- Read [method](references/method.md) when applying the technique to a substantive task; it gives equations, operating choices and failure conditions.
- Read [worked examples](references/examples.md) for a comparable case or to verify calculations.
- Read [provenance](references/provenance.md)