forecasting-calibrationlisted
Install: claude install-skill copyleftdev/superforecasting-skills-pack
# Diagnosing Calibration, Resolution and Sampling Limits
Apply the technique with explicit assumptions and evidence limits. Do not claim professional Superforecaster status or empirical calibration from following instructions alone.
## Workflow
1. Establish the same forecast/outcome dataset and scoring convention used for evaluation. Include only resolved outcomes; mark unresolved records null and report how many were excluded.
2. Examine group counts, mean predicted probability and observed event frequency.
3. Compute reliability, resolution and uncertainty with exact probability groups when validating the decomposition identity.
4. If using broad bins for readability, report raw Brier, coarsened Brier and their difference rather than asserting an exact raw-score identity.
5. Inspect subgroup/time behavior and sampling uncertainty before proposing recalibration.
6. Test any learned recalibration on held-out questions; report a diagnostic, not a guarantee of future calibration.
## Detailed resources
- Read [method](references/method.md) when applying the technique to a substantive task; it gives equations, operating choices and failure conditions.
- Read [worked examples](references/examples.md) for a comparable case or