forecasting-counterevidencelisted
Install: claude install-skill copyleftdev/superforecasting-skills-pack
# Considering the Opposite and Testing Cruxes
Use the research-informed procedure below without claiming professional Superforecaster status or empirically demonstrated calibration.
## Workflow
1. Record the provisional hypothesis and probability without presenting them as settled.
2. Construct the strongest plausible explanation for the contrary outcome; do not create an intentionally weak opposing case.
3. Identify evidence that would distinguish the explanations, not merely support both.
4. Check relevant primary sources within the task's evidence cutoff, or state what information is missing.
5. Identify the crux: an assumption or observable result whose revision would materially change the forecast.
6. Return the strongest challenge, evidence status, sensitivity and any justified revision. Preserve the original estimate and give a concise rationale.
## Detailed resources
- Read [method](references/method.md) when applying this technique to a substantive task; it contains assumptions, equations and edge cases.
- Read [worked examples](references/examples.md) for a comparable case or to verify interpretation.
- Read [provenance](references/provenance.md) for original authors, source attribution and limits on evidence