forecasting-delphi-elicitationlisted
Install: claude install-skill copyleftdev/superforecasting-skills-pack
# Eliciting Forecasts with Controlled Feedback
Use the research-informed procedure below without claiming professional Superforecaster status or empirically demonstrated calibration.
## Workflow
1. Confirm the same question, information cutoff and definitions for all participants.
2. Obtain initial probabilities, evidence summaries and uncertainty notes separately before exposing group numbers.
3. Record expertise, information access and shared sources. Do not imply independence merely because names differ.
4. Summarize the distribution and strongest reasons without ranking by status or pressuring participants toward consensus.
5. Invite private revisions with reasons. Preserve initial and revised forecasts and unresolved disagreements.
6. Aggregate only under a declared rule, report dependence limitations, and stop at the planned round/time budget.
## Detailed resources
- Read [method](references/method.md) when applying this technique to a substantive task; it contains assumptions, equations and edge cases.
- Read [worked examples](references/examples.md) for a comparable case or to verify interpretation.
- Read [provenance](references/provenance.md) for original authors, source attribution and limits on evidence clai