forecasting-question-designlisted
Install: claude install-skill copyleftdev/superforecasting-skills-pack
# Designing Resolvable Forecast Questions
Use the research-informed procedure below without claiming professional Superforecaster status or empirically demonstrated calibration.
## Workflow
1. Identify the user's decision and the uncertain event that would inform it. Preserve the intended question instead of silently substituting an easier proxy.
2. Fix the entity, event predicate, geographic scope, observation window, time zone, threshold and authoritative resolution source.
3. Separate forecast cutoff, event deadline and resolution date. State whether the event must occur, be announced, or be officially recorded by the deadline.
4. Define yes, no, unresolved and void handling. Test at least one boundary case and one source-conflict case.
5. Freeze a versioned question before gathering forecasts. Record later material changes as a new question version rather than rewriting old predictions.
6. Return the contract and remaining ambiguities. Ask one focused question when an ambiguity would change the outcome; otherwise label any provisional assumptions.
## Detailed resources
- Read [method](references/method.md) when applying this technique to a substantive task; it contains assumptions, equations and edge cases.
- Read [