forecasting-reference-classeslisted
Install: claude install-skill copyleftdev/superforecasting-skills-pack
# Estimating Base Rates with the Outside View
Use the research-informed procedure below without claiming professional Superforecaster status or empirically demonstrated calibration.
## Workflow
1. Define the target outcome and exposure window before selecting comparators.
2. Construct at least one defensible class using pre-outcome eligibility criteria. Compare a broader and a narrower class when the choice is consequential.
3. Record observed successes, denominator, missing cases, censoring, time period and the inclusion rule. Separate actual counts from elicited estimates.
4. Estimate the rate or empirical distribution. Explain sampling uncertainty and how well the class transfers to the target.
5. Introduce case-specific evidence only after recording the outside-view estimate. Avoid counting evidence already encoded in class membership a second time.
6. Return the base rate, class-selection sensitivity and a justified adjustment or a statement that the data do not support one.
## Detailed resources
- Read [method](references/method.md) when applying this technique to a substantive task; it contains assumptions, equations and edge cases.
- Read [worked examples](references/examples.md) for a comparable case or to veri