forecasting-update-ledgerlisted
Install: claude install-skill copyleftdev/superforecasting-skills-pack
# Maintaining Evidence-Driven Forecast Revisions
Apply the technique with explicit assumptions and evidence limits. Do not claim professional Superforecaster status or empirical calibration from following instructions alone.
## Workflow
1. Load the existing question version, prior forecast and last information cutoff. Ask for missing history rather than inventing it.
2. Identify genuinely new evidence and elapsed-time information. Separate corrections, new observations, unchanged reviews and question changes.
3. Determine the justified update using likelihoods, a conditional model or explicitly labeled judgment. Do not impose an arbitrary maximum change.
4. Append a new record with previous/new probability, evidence origin, rationale and next review trigger; do not overwrite history.
5. If resolution criteria have been met, record the outcome and evidence separately and stop forecasting that version.
6. Return a concise change note. Scheduling or recurring checks requires a separate authorized automation capability.
## Detailed resources
- Read [method](references/method.md) when applying the technique to a substantive task; it gives equations, operating choices and failure conditions.
- Read [worked examples](reference