forecasting-workflowlisted
Install: claude install-skill copyleftdev/superforecasting-skills-pack
# Research-Informed Forecasting Workflow
Produce an auditable forecast, not a performance persona. The Good Judgment research program combines multiple methods; there is no single inventor of all of them. Following a skill is not evidence of calibrated forecasting ability.
## Start with the task
Read [workflow](references/workflow.md) for a full forecast. Read [output contract](references/output-contract.md) when recording or updating a forecast. Read [provenance and evidence limits](references/provenance.md) when describing scientific support.
For a narrow request such as calculating a Brier score, perform only that stage. Respect time, format and evidence constraints. Do not contact people, place trades, publish forecasts or schedule monitoring without authorization.
## Execution checklist
- [ ] Define one resolvable question, cutoff, deadline and source.
- [ ] Record a defensible outside-view estimate and data limitations.
- [ ] Build the minimum useful conditional model.
- [ ] Incorporate diagnostic evidence once per independent origin.
- [ ] Examine a plausible contrary pathway and the main crux.
- [ ] Aggregate only actual comparable estimates, with justified parameters.
- [ ] Check coherence, precision, uncertai