anchoringlisted

# Anchoring ## Overview When people estimate an unknown quantity they start from a reference point — an **anchor** — and adjust. The adjustment is almost always insufficient, so the final answer stays closer to the anchor than it should. This pattern holds even when the anchor is explicitly random and subjects are told to ignore it (Tversky & Kahneman 1974). It survives expertise, explicit warnings, and financial incentives for accuracy. Strategically: almost every consequential negotiation, valuation, or forecast begins with an anchor. The first number said or written — asking price, salary band, prior-round valuation, revenue projection — anchors everything that follows. Composes with: [`pricing-strategy`](../pricing-strategy/SKILL.md) · [`expected-value-and-kelly`](../expected-value-and-kelly/SKILL.md) · [`probabilistic-thinking`](../probabilistic-thinking/SKILL.md) · [`signaling-games`](../signaling-games/SKILL.md) ## When to Use Apply when: - About to negotiate a price, salary, valuation, contract term, or settlement - Estimating an uncertain quantity after a number has already been mentioned - A counterparty has opened and your reasoning is gravitating toward their number - Resetting expectations after an anchor has already been set **When NOT to use:** - The number is genuinely informative (verifiable comparable, audited cost basis) — data, not an anchor - Decision is trivial; you are past the negotiating phase; or anchor was set by you intentionally ## Coachin