availability-heuristiclisted

# Availability Heuristic ## Overview The **availability heuristic**: people estimate probability by how easily examples come to mind. Vivid, recent, and media-reported events are systematically overestimated; routine, statistical events are underestimated. Five triggers: **recency**, **vividness**, **media coverage**, **personal experience**, **imaginability**. Structural fix: **reference-class forecasting** — answer from base-rate data, not memory. Composes with [`bayesian-reasoning`](../bayesian-reasoning/SKILL.md), [`probabilistic-thinking`](../probabilistic-thinking/SKILL.md), [`anchoring`](../anchoring/SKILL.md), [`survivorship-bias`](../survivorship-bias/SKILL.md), [`framing-effect`](../framing-effect/SKILL.md). ## When to Use - Someone estimates probability from memorable examples rather than data - Risk perception driven by recent news, vivid anecdotes, or media coverage - Team is preparing for the last disaster rather than the most likely next one - Investment or resource-allocation decision follows a recent dramatic event - Medical, legal, or technical decision made by anecdote rather than reference class **Not when:** available evidence is a representative sample; decision warrants precautionary weight on rare catastrophic risks; no reference-class data exists. ## Coaching Novices (Adaptive Front Door) - **Engine mode:** user has a specific risk or frequency estimate → run The Process directly. - **Coach mode:** user is new → guide step by step. In Coach m