dunning-krugerlisted

# Dunning-Kruger Effect ## Overview The **Dunning-Kruger effect** is the systematic self-assessment asymmetry demonstrated by Kruger & Dunning (1999): bottom-quartile performers overestimate rank by ~50 percentile points; top-quartile performers underestimate by ~5 points. Mechanism: the cognitive skills needed to *perform* a task are the same ones needed to *evaluate* performance — so novices lack the metacognition to see their own gap. The corrective is external measurement and feedback, not internal vigilance. Composes with [`metacognition`](../metacognition/SKILL.md), [`probabilistic-thinking`](../probabilistic-thinking/SKILL.md), [`critical-thinking`](../critical-thinking/SKILL.md), and [`confirmation-bias`](../confirmation-bias/SKILL.md). ## When to Use - A novice is expressing high confidence or dismissing expert opinion ("I could do that better") - Hiring/promotion decisions are based on candidate self-assessment - "How hard could it be?" asked about a domain the asker hasn't worked in - Feedback loops are absent; self-assessment is contradicted by external data and rejected - Someone mentions "overconfident," "doesn't know what they don't know," or "imposter syndrome" (the inverse) **Not when:** person is a known expert with an external track record; domain has tight, recent feedback loops that already calibrate performance; high-confidence claim is self-deprecating (actual metacognition signal). ## Coaching Novices (Adaptive Front Door) - **Engine mode:** us