diagnoselisted

# Problem Analysis — Orchestrator *Strategy — Step 1 of 4. Defines the business problem, builds falsifiable reasoning via testable hypotheses, and identifies root-cause with evidence-backed tests.* **Core Question:** "What's actually causing this, and what does the evidence prove?" > Why this skill exists, Watanabe MECE philosophy, 3-tree-type calibration, always-cold-start rationale, 10-gate quality summary, Inconclusive-is-valid philosophy, external-factor 6-factor rationale, when NOT to use: [`references/playbook.md`](references/playbook.md) [PLAYBOOK]. --- ## Critical Gates — Read First 1. **Problem statement MUST be: "[Metric] is [current] instead of [target]."** No vague business problems. If the user says "things aren't going well," interview for the specific metric, current value, and target value before dispatching any agent. 2. **Do NOT skip external factors — 30%+ of problems have external root-causes.** The external-check-agent runs in Layer 1 alongside the tree builder. Skipping it leads to treating a symptom when the cause is environmental. 3. **If/Then/Because format required — hypotheses without "because" are unfalsifiable.** The "because" clause is the reasoning mechanism. Without it, a rejected hypothesis teaches nothing and the tests prove nothing. 4. **Do NOT confirm hypotheses without evidence — "seems likely" is not Confirmed.** Every verdict must cite a specific data point that matches or contradicts the "then" clause. Inconclusive is a valid verd