fin-forecastlisted

# Revenue Forecast & Cash Linkage ## 3-layer structure 1. **Base** — recurring revenue (subscription/repeat) + upcoming renewals. 100% only for signed contracts 2. **Weighted pipeline** — stage conversion rates (measured from historical cohorts) × amount. "Gut feel" allocation is an unrecorded bias 3. **Gap** — if 1+2 fall short of target, back-solve the number of new opportunities needed using the coverage formula ## Commit / Best-case / Pipeline Structure the sales leader's verdict into 3 tiers: commit (≥90%) · best case (≥50%) · pipeline. Any executive override must come with a recorded reason — unrecorded overrides make forecast error impossible to learn from. ## Accuracy management After month-end, track forecast-vs-actual error by cohort and sales leader and **target within ±10%**. Leaders with a consistent bias (always over/under) get their allocation weights adjusted. ## Cash linkage Revenue ≠ cash. Convert forecast revenue into a collection schedule by payment terms (30/60/90 days) and feed it into the **13-week cash flow** — update weekly, and trace errors beyond 4 weeks down to the contract level. If runway is under 6 months, connect to spending and collection actions, not weight adjustments. ## Validation loop Decompose forecast error by cause — pipeline omission (sales), stage bias (leader), recurring-revenue estimation error (finance). Ownership differs by cause, so a blended error alone cannot drive improvement. ## Output 3-layer forecast table (with assu