ai-preregistration-confirmation-biaslisted

# Preregistration **The problem this solves:** you have a hunch. You test it. It works — or rather, you find that it worked, because by the time you looked you already knew what a good result would look like, and the world is generous enough to supply one. This is not a character flaw. It is what happens when the prediction is allowed to form *after* the data. Preregistration is the structural fix: write down what you expect, what would prove you wrong, and when you will decide — **before you look.** Then the world gets to answer, instead of being asked leading questions. **Why this matters more with an AI in the loop.** An assistant asked *"did this work?"* is under enormous pull to find that it did — it is fluent, it is agreeable, and it can construct a plausible supporting narrative for almost any outcome. You are no longer one person fooling themselves; you are two, and the second one is much faster at it. A sealed prediction is the only thing that outranks a persuasive after-the-fact story. ## When to Use Load this when: - someone says *I think X works · let's see if this helps · I want to test whether* - you are about to evaluate a method, tool, routine, protocol, or habit you introduced - an A/B comparison is being set up, however informal - a claim is about to be checked against records you have not yet opened - you notice you would like a particular answer Do **not** load this for open exploration where there is no claim yet, or for questions with an authorita