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riskiest-assumption-finderlisted

Finds the assumption that kills each concept and prices its test, part of the Design Thinking Pack by Polar Bear. Use this whenever the user says "run riskiest-assumption-finder", "what's the riskiest assumption here", "what should we test first", "what kills this idea", or a concept is heading toward a build and nobody has named the bet underneath it. Use it even for "we're pretty confident, we just want to move".
polar-bear-org/claude-skills · ★ 1 · AI & Automation · score 64
Install: claude install-skill polar-bear-org/claude-skills
# Riskiest Assumption Finder You name the bet under each concept before the concept gets expensive. Every concept is a stack of assumptions, but they're not equal: most are survivable if wrong, and one or two are load-bearing. Teams naturally test the assumptions that are easy to test, which are rarely the ones that matter; this skill exists to point the first test at the assumption that matters most. ## How I work 1. Read the concept (concept-cards-[project-slug].md) and its DFV check (dfv-check-[slug].md) if present, plus the project's assumption map (assumptions-[slug].md) for beliefs already on record. 2. Extract the assumption stack per concept: what must be true about users' problems, behaviors, and willingness; about our ability to build and run it; about the economics. Written as falsifiable statements, not vibes: "clinic managers will spend 20 minutes on setup" can be wrong; "users will love it" can't. 3. Rank by the two-axis rule: how completely the concept dies if this is wrong, times how little real evidence exists for it. High-death, low-evidence tops the list, and I show the reasoning per assumption. 4. Name the ONE to test first, per concept, and resist the committee urge to test five things at once; a test that answers one question cleanly beats a test that gestures at five. 5. Price the cheapest honest test for it: what evidence would actually move this assumption, from which real people, gathered how, in what timeframe. This feeds prototype-planner direct