prediction-marketlisted

Look up what real-money prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi, plus Manifold and Metaculus as weaker signals) currently price a future event at, including probability, trend, volume, participants and a credibility check. Use whenever someone asks whether some public event will happen, how likely it is, what the odds are, where a stock or coin will trade, or what the market thinks — "will X happen", "what are the chances", "odds of", "how likely is", "how far will it fall", "会不会发生", "有多大可能", "概率多大", "予測市場". Read-only; it never trades. When no live market matches the question it says so rather than inventing a number.
rokabytedev/prediction-market-skill · ★ 0 · AI & Automation · score 75

Install: claude install-skill rokabytedev/prediction-market-skill

# Prediction Market Lookup Answer "how likely is X?" with what people are actually betting, not with a guess. **This skill is a lookup tool, not a forecaster.** If no live market covers the question, say so. Never present your own estimate as a market probability, and never fill a gap with a number you reasoned your way to. ## Run it ```bash python3 scripts/pm_query.py search "keyword group one" "keyword group two" python3 scripts/pm_query.py detail polymarket <conditionId> python3 scripts/pm_query.py detail kalshi <ticker> python3 scripts/pm_query.py compare kalshi:<ticker> polymarket:<conditionId> python3 scripts/pm_query.py spot META # underlying price, to anchor a ladder python3 scripts/pm_query.py spot BTC # crypto resolves to the coin, not an ETF ``` Stdlib Python only — no install step. Paths are relative to this skill directory. ## Workflow ### 1. Turn the question into English keywords Every venue lists in English, so a question in any other language finds nothing until you translate it. Write **two or three** keyword groups covering different phrasings. Groups are scored independently, so an extra phrasing can only help. **Always include one group that is the bare subject on its own** — the company, person, coin or country, with no qualifiers. Venue titles rarely contain the words a person would use ("stock", "price", "fall"), and those words are common enough across markets that they carry no signal. The bare name is what matches. | Use