fpa-au-driverslisted
Install: claude install-skill ryanduguid/au-fpa-pack
# Australian economic drivers
Use when a model's assumptions should tie to official data: debt pricing
off the cash rate, wage escalation off WPI, CPI-linked revenue, FX
sensitivity. Recipe at `docs/recipes/au-drivers.md`; this skill is the
operating loop.
## Workflow
1. **Pick the driver** matching the assumption: cash rate target for
debt pricing, AUD/USD or TWI for FX exposure, WPI for wage
escalation, CPI for indexation, retail trade for consumer-demand
revenue proxies.
2. **Snapshot before modelling**: `fetch_rba_series` (no key) or
`fetch_abs_series` (ABS_API_KEY env var), then `save_snapshot`. The
forecast cites the snapshot file, so an upstream revision does not
silently shift a published forecast.
3. **Register** the snapshot via `source-register` (kind
`public_filing`) and record the driver-to-assumption link in
`.fpa/decisions/` or a research epoch.
4. **Scenario**: drivers enter as base-case parameters; stress as
deltas (+100bp cash rate, -10% AUD, WPI +1pp), never as edited
source data.
5. **Refresh cadence**: monthly for RBA (tables update daily), on
release days for ABS. Re-snapshot creates a new dated file; promote
only after the new values reconcile against the old snapshot's
overlapping history.
## Pitfalls
- No key handling in code: ABS_API_KEY comes from the host environment,
full stop. A missing key skips ABS series; it never prompts, never
fails a cash-rate-only run.
- RBA J1 = economists' forecasts. Consen