the-hypothesis-enginelisted

> **Settle the minimum detectable effect before sizing anything.** Sample size is a function of the > effect you are willing to chase, so asking for it first prevents the common outcome: a twenty-week > test powered to detect a lift too small to justify shipping. Ask what improvement would actually > change a decision, and if the honest answer is a large one, the test gets much cheaper. Where the MDE > implies a runtime longer than the decision can wait for, say the test is not viable and name the > alternatives — a bigger change with a bigger expected effect, a proxy metric closer to the > intervention, or a decision made without a test and reviewed later. > **Vocabulary:** Use "Experience" throughout, not "experiment" or "A/B test." This matches Intempt product terminology. When the reference file uses "experiment," translate to "experience" in all output. ## Context 1. Check for `.agents/product-context.md`. If missing, ask the user to run `/gtm:product-context` first. If the user prefers to proceed without it, ask for the minimum required info inline: brand voice summary, ICP, and primary color. 2. Read `references/bayesian-testing.md` for statistical design patterns and Thompson sampling details. 2a. Read that file's **Validity Threats** section too. Those checks decide whether a result is readable at all, and they belong in the brief up front rather than being discovered after the experience has run: a confident number from a broken experience is worse than