jackal-state-machinelisted

# Jackal 5-State Machine — 股票价格状态分类 > **Source**: Jackal Quant 深度研报 (2026-05-17) > **Purpose**: 每天看盘前花 5 分钟判断个股处于哪个 state，对应执行哪套操作。 > **Edge**: 散户最大的 alpha 杀手是「在 State 2 当成 State 1 追、在 State 3 当成 State 5 割」。Identify the state correctly = avoid 80% of position-sizing mistakes. --- ## When to invoke (CRITICAL — 防误触) ### ✅ Trigger when ALL of these are true: 1. A clear **stock ticker** is mentioned (`$TICKER`, `NVDA`, `MRVL`, "苹果", "英伟达") OR a stock/options/equity context is established 2. User asks "state", "阶段", "状态", "5态", "Jackal" in equity-market context ### ❌ Do NOT trigger when: - User is writing/reviewing **code** (React state, useState, state machines, FSM, XState) - User mentions "state" in a software/devops/AI agent context - User talks about US states (California state, Texas state) - No ticker or market context is clear - User is in `cr-review`, `design-doc`, `playwright-cli`, `humanize-tone` flow If ambiguous, ask: "你是问 $TICKER 股票的 5-state 分类吗？还是软件 state machine？" --- ## The 5 States (核心定义) ### State 1 · 突破并站稳 (Breakout & Hold) **判断标准 (ALL of):** - 价格突破前期关键阻力位 (e.g., 52W high, multi-month resistance) - 连续 2 个交易日收盘高于突破位 - 突破日 volume ≥ 30 日平均的 1.5x (理想 2x+) - MACD histogram 转正 - MA 排列: Price > 20EMA > 50MA > 200MA (完美多头) **少数能成立的 state**（每年 <15% 时间） **操作**: 用「突破回踩 (breakout pullback)」策略，**不要**直接追涨 - 激进派 (Aggressive): 30% 仓位在突破日尾盘买 - 标准派 (Standard): 30% 等回踩到突破位 +0-3% 范围买 - 保守派 (Conservative): 20% 等突破后整理 3-7 天再买 ### State 2 · 区间震荡 (Range-bound) — 最常见 60% 概率