narrative-reversal-screenlisted

# Narrative Reversal Screen — Buy The Beaten Down ## 🔍 Pre-flight checklist — reversals fail spectacularly in the wrong regime A "down 50% with intact catalyst" looks like value until the broader market sells off another 20% and your "value" becomes -70%. Required checks: 1. **Macro regime gate** — trigger `macro-warning`. Reversals work in 🟢 GREEN (recovering market lifts beaten-down names) and **mid-late 🟡 YELLOW** (capitulation phase). 🔴 RED → reversals are still falling knives. Don't recommend reversal buys in RED; flag as "watch list only" instead. 2. **Insider must be slowing sells or starting to buy** — `$(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/review-investment-screenshot/scripts/insider_ratio.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) TICKER --window 180` (180d for reversals — see the trend over 2 quarters, not just 90d). The ORCL signal was: pre-crash 8 sells / 2 buys → post-crash 2 sells / 5 buys. Form 4 code "P" only. 3. **First higher low CONFIRMED, not predicted** — Don't pre-empt. Wait for: (a) 50DMA crossover OR (b) confirmed higher low on weekly. Pre-empting "looks bottomed" is how -30% becomes -50%. 4. **3-tier entry** — T1 = first confirmed higher low; T2 = retest of capitulation low; T3 = full revisit (if it happens). Never "buy at market on a chart that looks bottomed." 5. **Sizing 2-3% per pick** — reversals are higher-risk than momentum names; don't size like core holdings. 6. **Tax framing** — reversal entries are positions, not swings; assume 12