sector-rotation-analysislisted

# Sector Rotation Analysis — Where Money Is Going ## 🔍 Pre-flight checklist — rotation creates tax + sizing events that need accounting Rotation = realize gains in one sector, buy in another. Both halves have execution cost. Required checks: 1. **Macro regime first** — trigger `macro-warning`. Regime determines rotation type: - 🟢 GREEN: aggressive rotation OK (sell hot to buy cheap) - 🟡 YELLOW: defensive rotation only (sell high-beta to buy staples/utilities) - 🔴 RED: don't rotate INTO new sectors — rotate TO CASH. Then redeploy at lower prices. 2. **Tax on the trim leg** — every rotation pair has a "sell X" half. Run `tax-optimize` on it. If held < 12 months → STCG ~25-37% federal. Often a rotation that's +5% net pre-tax is breakeven or negative post-tax. **Always state the post-tax expected delta**, not just the pre-tax sector spread. 3. **Sizing per sector after rotation** — ≤ 30% in any single sector (even Tech). Document current sector weights BEFORE recommending. If user is already 40% Tech, don't recommend adding more Tech sub-sector even if signal is green. 4. **Sub-sector concentration within rotation** — "rotate from Tech to Energy" doesn't mean "buy XOM at any price." Each leg needs analyze-stock-level analysis. 5. **3-tier entry on the add leg** — Don't rotate at market. T1 = trigger, T2 = 50DMA, T3 = 200DMA on the destination sector ETF or stock. **"Look carefully" rule**: sector ETFs hide concentration. XLK is 23% AAPL + 18% NVDA + 9% MSFT — buy