estimate-from-precedentlisted

# Estimate from Precedent Ask someone how long a piece of work will take and they picture it going well: no interruptions, no rework, no waiting on someone else. That picture is not dishonest, it is just the wrong question. The right question is how long the last several things like this actually took, including the parts that did not go well, because those parts show up again almost every time. The failure this exists to prevent: **an estimate built entirely from imagining this specific instance of the work, when a look at similar past instances would have caught the gap before it became a missed deadline.** This is a well-documented, specific failure, not a character flaw or a discipline problem, and it is corrected by changing what the estimate is built from, not by trying harder to imagine accurately. --- ## What this needs **Minimum: the estimate someone has already made or is about to make, and what the work is.** It will ask for reference cases from that. **Better with** two or three past instances of similar work and how long they actually took, even roughly remembered. **Best with** actual logged time or dates from those past instances rather than memory, since memory of past duration is itself optimistic in the same direction as the fresh estimate. --- ## Step 1: Get the inside-view estimate The number the person would give if asked right now, imagining this specific piece of work going the way they picture it going. Write it down before doing anything els