assumption-mapperlisted

# Assumption Mapper Every product bet rests on a stack of assumptions. This skill makes them explicit, classifies each as Known / Believed / Hoped, and produces a ranked test plan so the team validates the riskiest assumptions *before* committing to build. ## Core Principle **The assumptions you don't write down are the ones that kill the product.** Hidden assumptions become "obvious in hindsight" only because no one stress-tested them. The mapper's job is to drag them into the open and force a verdict on each. ## The 3-Tier Classification | Tier | Definition | Action | |------|------------|--------| | **Known** | Direct evidence, multiple independent sources, recent data | No test needed; document the evidence link | | **Believed** | Reasonable inference from indirect or partial evidence | Test if assumption is *critical*; defer if not | | **Hoped** | Wishful thinking dressed as reasoning; no real evidence | Test before any meaningful investment | Cross with criticality (Critical / High / Medium / Low) → the **Critical × Hoped** quadrant is the team's actual risk surface. ## Assumption Categories The mapper walks through 5 categories to surface assumptions a one-shot brainstorm misses: | Category | Example Assumptions | |----------|---------------------| | **Customer / Demand** | "SMB ops leaders feel this pain weekly"; "buyers will pay $X" | | **Solution / Product** | "Our approach is materially better than the workaround"; "the model can hit 90% accuracy on this t