bt-tournamentlisted

# BT Tournament This skill records pairwise judgments and refits the complete comparison ledger. The `lcb` and `ucb` names are retained for compatibility, but they are 95% *approximate posterior* intervals from a centered Laplace approximation. They are not calibrated frequentist confidence intervals or strict LUCB bounds. ## When to invoke - Researcher subagent has just emitted >= 3 hypothesis nodes in one turn. - The user explicitly typed `/bt-tournament`. - The cockpit shows candidates with unresolved approximate intervals and the user asks which to push first. ## Workflow 1. Gather the candidate hypothesis node ids and texts from `mcp__memory__get_active_frontier`. 2. For each pair you intend to compare, call `mcp__memory__judge_hypotheses` to fetch the canonical comparison prompt. Evaluate inline (do not spawn a sub-agent just to judge). 3. Decide a winner. Call `mcp__memory__record_judgement(a, b, winner, reason)`. Internally this records the comparison and updates the BT leaderboard; you do not need to call `update_bt_rating` separately. 4. Pull the leaderboard via `mcp__memory__get_bt_leaderboard(top_k=10)`. Look at `strength`, `probability_best`, `n_comparisons`, `fit_converged`, and `insufficient_samples`. 5. Compare the top two with `mcp__memory__compare_bt_candidates(top_id, runner_up_id)`. Stop when every serious candidate has at least 3 relevant comparisons and `probability_a_beats_b >= 0.95`. Also stop if the budget is exhausted or the user