evidence-first-answer

# Evidence-First Answer — The "Are You Sure?" Discipline ## When to invoke - Any user question that contains: "why didn't", "how come no", "are we", "what's our", "did we", "how much", "revenue", "money", "customers", "conversion", "traffic", "leads", "sales" - Any pushback that contains: **"are you sure?"**, "really?", "is that right?", "verify", "prove it" - Before writing any phrase that implies traction or its absence ## The hard discipline (4 steps, no skipping) ### 1. Date-check every number you're about to cite ```bash # For any doc you're about to quote: git log -1 --format='%ai %s' -- <path> grep -E "^Updated:|^Status:|2026-" <path> | head -5 ``` If the doc's last-updated date is older than 14 days, **treat its numbers as historical, not current.** Say "as of <date>" explicitly. ### 2. Distinguish "plan" from "telemetry" Words/phrases that mean the number is a **forecast, not an actual**: - "30-day revenue plan showed..." - "Modeled target..." - "Projected..." - "If we hit..." - Any number inside `docs/MONETIZATION_EXEC_SUMMARY_*.md` past line 30 - Any number inside `reports/gtm/*` that isn't backed by a same-file `curl` output Words/phrases that mean the number is **measured**: - "`getBillingSummary` returned..." - "`curl /v1/billing/summary` JSON..." - "Stripe-reconciled charges..." - A bash code block with the actual command + output When in doubt, run `revenue-truth` skill — query the live endpoint. ### 3. The "what would change my mind" test Before s...