real-options-analyzer

# Real Options Analyzer ## Overview The Real Options Analyzer skill provides capabilities for valuing strategic flexibility in investment decisions. It extends traditional NPV analysis by quantifying the value of options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, or switch, enabling better decision-making under uncertainty. ## Capabilities - Option identification and framing - Binomial tree valuation - Black-Scholes adaptation - Monte Carlo option valuation - Decision tree representation - Sensitivity to volatility - Strategic option types (defer, expand, abandon, switch) - Integration with NPV analysis ## Used By Processes - Strategic Scenario Development - What-If Analysis Framework - Investment Decision Analysis ## Usage ### Option Definition ```python # Define real option real_option = { "type": "option_to_expand", "underlying_project": { "name": "Manufacturing Plant Phase 1", "base_npv": 5000000, "initial_investment": 20000000, "volatility": 0.35, # annual volatility of project value "dividend_yield": 0.03 # cash flow yield }, "option_characteristics": { "expansion_cost": 15000000, "expansion_factor": 1.5, # 50% capacity increase "exercise_window": {"start_year": 2, "end_year": 5}, "option_type": "American" # can exercise anytime in window }, "risk_free_rate": 0.05 } ``` ### Binomial Tree Valuation ```python # Binomial tree configuration binomial_config = { "metho...