scenario-modeler

# Scenario Modeler ## Overview The Scenario Modeler skill provides advanced scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulations for venture capital return modeling. It enables probabilistic analysis of exit outcomes and return distributions to inform investment decisions and portfolio construction. ## Capabilities ### Exit Scenario Modeling - Model multiple exit scenarios (IPO, M&A, secondary) - Assign probabilities to scenarios - Calculate expected returns across outcomes - Account for timing variations ### Monte Carlo Simulation - Run thousands of probabilistic scenarios - Model parameter distributions - Generate return distributions - Calculate confidence intervals ### Sensitivity Analysis - Identify key value drivers - Model driver interactions - Create tornado charts - Determine break-even assumptions ### Return Distribution Analysis - Calculate expected IRR and MOIC - Generate return percentiles - Model loss probability - Analyze portfolio-level returns ## Usage ### Model Exit Scenarios ``` Input: Company data, exit assumptions Process: Build scenarios, assign probabilities Output: Scenario matrix, expected value ``` ### Run Monte Carlo ``` Input: Base assumptions, parameter distributions Process: Run simulation iterations Output: Return distribution, percentile analysis ``` ### Analyze Sensitivities ``` Input: Base case, key drivers Process: Calculate driver sensitivities Output: Sensitivity analysis, tornado chart ``` ### Model Portfolio Returns ``` Input: Portf...