earnings-preview-med

> Methodology inspired by publicly taught earnings-preview frameworks; all text is an original paraphrase. ## Defaults | Parameter | Default Value | Rationale | |-----------|---------------|-----------| | surprise_window | 8 quarters | Standard surprise history window | | include_catalysts | true | Med prints move on catalysts as much as EPS | | guidance_sensitivity | true | Guidance is the swing factor for pharma | ## Preflight Run canonical pre-flight per `contracts/preflight.md`. Propagate X-Agentii-Trace per `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md`. ## Triggers - "Preview [biotech ticker]'s upcoming earnings." - "What should I expect at [ticker]'s next print?" - "How has [ticker] surprised historically?" - "Which catalysts land near [ticker]'s earnings date?" - "Build an earnings preview with consensus estimates." - "What's the guidance risk for [ticker] this quarter?" - "Summarize the last few quarters for [ticker]." - "Earnings + FDA calendar overlap for [ticker]." - "What are the swing factors for [ticker]'s print?" - "Historical reaction to [ticker]'s earnings surprises." ## Production Grounding - Med prints have TWO drivers: financials (revenue/EPS/guidance) and catalysts (PDUFA/AdCom/readouts). The catalyst overlay is mandatory — a clean quarter can be undone by a CRL days earlier. - For pre-revenue biotechs, the print is mostly about cash runway + pipeline updates; consensus EPS is secondary. - Grounding frameworks: `references/knowledge-frameworks.md` (道/法 re...