med-market-sizing

> Methodology inspired by publicly taught patient-flow sizing approaches; all text is an original paraphrase. ## Defaults | Parameter | Default Value | Rationale | |-----------|---------------|-----------| | funnel_stages | 7 | prevalence → diagnosed → interested → affordable → covered → treated → persistent | | affordability_rule | ~10% monthly budget | Income-share rule per cohort and country | | scenario_grid | bull/base/bear | Never a single point number | | analog_anchors | named | Statins for penetration, tech S-curves for adoption | | capacity_state | explicit | Supply-constrained vs demand-limited + flip condition | ## Preflight Run canonical pre-flight per `contracts/preflight.md`. Include the `X-Agentii-Trace` header on every tool call per `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md` — carry the `_run_id` from your first tool result and name yourself (and your parent, if you were spawned). Confirm ticker resolution via `search_companies` before market queries. ## Triggers - "What is the TAM for [therapy area]?" - "Size the market for [drug/device] in [indication]." - "What has to be true for the bear case in [class]?" - "Walk me through the patient funnel for [indication]." - "Is [class] supply-constrained or demand-limited?" - "What capacity ceiling do [company]'s plants impose?" - "Anchor [class] adoption to a historical analog." - "Bull/base/bear sizing for [indication] with drivers." - "How does the income-share rule cap affordability?" - "What penetration rate i...