capacity-planner

# capacity-planner Sizing tool for **ops teams that handle queued work** — Support, CX, Customer Success, BizOps, IT ops, Finance ops. Built on Erlang-C queueing theory, Little's Law, and the operational-leadership canon (Fournier, Larson, Cleveland, Reinertsen). Deterministic, stdlib-only, no LLM calls. ## Purpose You are an ops leader sized 15 → 35 with no idea how the 35-person org will actually behave at peak load. Or you are at 88% utilization and SLA is starting to slip. Or you have a hiring budget approved and need to sequence it across four quarters without burning out the existing team. This skill answers those questions with arithmetic, not vibes. It produces three artifacts: 1. **Capacity sizing** at 70/80/90% utilization against P50/P90/P99 demand, with P(SLA breach) at each point and a SAFE/WATCH/AT_RISK/CRITICAL risk band. 2. **Utilization health** at the per-member traffic-light level plus a team verdict (HEALTHY/SQUEEZED/OVERLOADED/UNBALANCED). 3. **12-month quarterly hiring plan** accounting for ramp curves, attrition, QoQ demand growth, and span-of-control manager triggers. ## When to use - **Annual ops capacity planning** (October-November for the following fiscal year). - **Quarterly re-sizing** if demand changed >15% or attrition spiked. - **Pre-budget defense** — the math that justifies the headcount ask to your CFO. - **Diagnostic** when an ops team is missing SLA and you need to know whether it's a sizing problem, a process pro...